Drought propagation and construction of a comprehensive drought index based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and empirical Kendall distribution function (<i>K</i><sub>C?</sub>): a case study for the Jinta River basin in northwestern China

Abstract. Monitoring drought and mastering the laws of propagation are basis for regional prevention resistance. Multivariate indicators considering meteorological, agricultural hydrological information may fully describe conditions. However, series variables in cold arid regions that too short or missing make it difficult to monitor drought. This paper proposed a method combining Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) empirical Kendall distribution function (KC?) monitoring. The SWAT model, based on principle runoff formation, was used simulate evolution process. Three univariate indexes, namely meteorological (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; SPEI), soil moisture SSI) streamflow SDI), were constructed using parametric non-parametric analyze time from KC? build multivariable comprehensive meteorology–agriculture–hydrology index (MAHDI) integrated characteristics evolution. Jinta River inland basin northwestern China as study area. results showed had seasonal lag degree this high northern low southern regions. MAHDI proved be acceptable consistent with historical records, could catch conditions characterized by capture occurrence end droughts. Nevertheless, its ability characterize mild moderate droughts stronger than severe In addition, insignificant aggravating trends spring summer alleviating autumn winter at annual scales. provided theoretical support monitoring basin. possibility other watersheds lacking measured data.